Forecasting vs Predictability
Forecasting is a statement about some future outcome or event yet unknown, within some agreed level of uncertainty, that is verifiable against future outcomes. How you model assumptions is at the heart of forecasting
Predictability is about behaviors that can be anticipated within an agreed degree of reliability. How you model data is at the heart of predictability.
There’s little point in discussing forecasting without first establishing an acceptable degree of predictability. Let’s explore what that means.